Kerry up by one? Bush ahead by two? It simply does not matter, because in this country, we use a peculiar system known as the Electoral College to choose our president.

Repeatedly we hear of the importance of swing states, where the outcome could go either way. Most analysts put the number of swing states between 15 and 20, leaving three-quarters of the entire population in states that have been conceded by both parties to remain dark gray (for Kerry) or lighter gray (for Bush). Since Labor Day, campaigning has entered the final stretch. The current electoral map has its advantages and disadvantages for both candidates. Whereas John Kerry received a very minimal bounce from the Democratic convention, President George W. Bush by some accounts had gained a 10 percent bounce nationally.

Much of this map should look largely familiar. It is generally the same as 2000: there have been no fundamental shifts in voter opinion, just some minor adjustments. Even Florida is still tied. A state that 'leans' indicates that the candidate is ahead by less than five percent. The states colored white are tied--neither candidate holds more than a one percent lead. Data is compiled from multiple non-partisan sources including American Research Group, Gallup, Rasmussen Reports, Survey USA, and Zogby. The result is a mathematical average, with newer polls weighted far more heavily than older ones.

The southwest appears to be increasingly influential this year and is becoming a growing problem for Bush. In 2000, Bush carried Nevada and Colorado rather easily, but now both states are tied. The entire region continues to have a large influx of Hispanics, giving a slight advantage to Kerry; analysts continue to see this demographic as both the fastest growing and most important in this year"s election. In Nevada, voters are responding favorably to Kerry"s opposition to the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site, a plan the Bush administration supports. This might be the only state in the country where a particular environmental issue could actually sway the electorate, as a strong fear of nuclear material has crossed party lines. It also probably did not help that Bush mispronounced the state"s name several times on a campaign stop a few months ago.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of all on the map right now is Colorado. No one expected this state to be a battleground, but two polls showed that Bush and Kerry were tied and now a new Zogby poll shows Kerry ahead by one percent. Kerry, who was born in Colorado, has campaigned in the state and is spending large sums of money in advertising.

Wisconsin has now shifted to Bush by a reasonable margin. This is not surprising, as Gore carried the state in 2000 by less than one percent. The GOP has been eyeing Wisconsin for a while and has heavily outspent Democrats here. Indeed, the Kerry lead has eroded in this state week by week. The most recent Gallup poll puts Bush ahead significantly. Bush has pushed hard to gain even more Great Lakes states, including Minnesota and Michigan.

In the East, Virginia is starting to surprise some analysts, as Bush"s lead has shrunk to about three percent. Given that this state that has not voted for a Democratic president in the past 40 years, it is understandable that no one has paid it much attention. Kerry has vowed to win this state and has campaigned modestly, but Bush has yet to seriously follow suit. New Hampshire, a state that Bush barely won in the last election, now solidly supports Kerry. Exit polls in 2000 indicate Gore would have won if Nader were not on the ballot there.

With all these individual factors weighing heavily on the outcome of the election, not surprisingly, the race is still too close to call.

The author is a Columbia College first-year.