Outlook on Obama’s historic visit to China

There is an emerging consensus that China and the U.S. share the single most important political relationship of the 21st century. As President Barack Obama visits China for the first time from Nov. 15 to 18, the world turns its attention to the potential outcomes of this momentous event. I see three key global issues looming over the meeting between Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao: trade tension between the U.S. and China, concerns over nuclear proliferation, and each nation’s sizeable impact on global warming.

Of these three key issues, the economic discussions will probably attract the most attention, as the U.S. struggles to recover from a massive financial crisis and China continues to grow at a lightning-fast pace. With a GDP growth rate of 7.7 percent in the first three quarters of 2009, China surprised the rest of the world by mobilizing economically in a way that most developed countries could not match. This unique ability is only furthering American worries about the gigantic trade surplus that China enjoys over the U.S.

This imbalance, in conjunction with the Chinese ownership of U.S. debt, sparked calls for protectionism. On Sept. 13, Washington imposed a tariff of roughly 35 percent on Chinese tires. Earlier this month, another tariff was imposed on Chinese steel pipes, ranging from 24 to 37 percent on top of a 21 percent tax that already exists. These measures, as well as the “buy American” clause of February’s fiscal stimulus package, are ruffling feathers in Beijing, which relies in large part on American consumers to propel the Chinese economy even further.

Here at Columbia, several prominent economists, including professors Sunil Gulati and Jagdish Bhagwati, have openly advocated against protectionism. However, others argue that Beijing unfairly reaps benefits by controlling the value of China’s currency, the RMB, which makes Chinese goods cheaper around the world.
Still, China and the U.S. are simply too interconnected to decisively argue that one side is benefiting and one is suffering. If the U.S. dollar sinks in value, Beijing’s dollar reserves will lose value as well. Whatever new order awaits the global financial markets, I believe that cooperation between China and the U.S. will be the foundation for any change to come.

That cooperation will be challenged by the issue of North Korea, perhaps the world’s most unpredictable nuclear power. Obama and Hu will probably discuss greater cooperation between the two countries and the United Nations Security Council. There may be an attempt to restart the six-party talks between South Korea, North Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and the U.S. on the topic of nuclear disarmament. However, I do not anticipate a detailed agreement on the topic of North Korean nuclear nonproliferation from this trip.

The U.S. and China also exert a huge influence over the rest of the world on the issue of environmental protection. Both countries—which, combined, produce two-fifths of the world’s greenhouse gases—have made negligible progress toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lagging far behind the Europeans, who will enthusiastically attend the Copenhagen climate conference next month. Climate change legislation remains bogged down in the U.S. Congress, and American officials say U.S. actions will be futile without a similar commitment from China, which lacks the kind of stringent pollution regulations on factories and cars that the U.S. implemented decades ago. And Washington is not budging. Todd Stern, the chief U.S. negotiator on the issue, asserts that developing nations will contribute the most to increases in emissions. Stern insists, “No country holds the fate of the earth more in its hands than China. Not one.” China’s argument is that raising living standards is still more of a priority than capping or reducing emissions.

While the people of both countries may eagerly await news from the first meeting between their heads of state, major steps on these issues seem unlikely. While the two nations may resolve their trade disputes without much difficulty, I expect the thornier issue of nuclear nonproliferation to be a surprising linchpin for closer diplomatic ties. Neither the U.S. nor China has any interest in an increasingly erratic North Korea possessing (or, at this point, deploying) nuclear weapons.

President Obama’s visit to China, much like Richard Nixon’s visit in 1972, may mark a new era of diplomatic ties between the two nations. I have heard some say that wars will break out between China and the U.S. over natural resources in the next 50 years—I beg to differ. The economic interdependence between the two nations will render such conflicts unlikely—cutting all economic ties during a war would simply deal too much damage to make such a conflict worthwhile. The future of international relations is no longer about state versus state. Rather, it is the collective states versus our common obstacles, such as global warming. As students and future leaders, we should believe in a positive outlook and actively engage ourselves in understanding the differences across cultures. Many of us are already doing so. Students in both countries have started actively engaging each other in recent years. Student-run organizations, along with academic institutions such as the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia and the US-China Institute at the University of Southern California, are spurring greater cross-cultural collaboration. International student networks such as the Columbia-based Global China Connection, which operates 37 university chapters in North America, along with campus organizations such as the Columbia University Chinese Students and Scholars Association and the Business School’s Greater China Society, are promoting substantive interactions with China. From that point of view, I see the future of U.S.-China relations looking brighter than ever before.

The author is a Columbia College junior majoring in economics and East Asian languages and cultures. He is the president of Raw Elementz and the director of network management for Global China Connection.

Tags: Opinion, David Y. Zhu, China, President Obama