The Swinging Pendulum: Housing Trends Over the Years

The housing-selection process is about as easy to predict as the stock market, but where there are numbers, people will always use them.

Students have been speculating basically since the second housing selection wrapped up last year about which residence halls will be in high demand this year. Many rely on the Columbia housing Web site—which posts the group history and cutoff history from each year—when forming their groups in an attempt to maximize their chances of getting choice suites.

“Everyone thinks that they’re being clever by looking at the numbers,” Gerry Rodriguez, CC ’09, said. “But then everyone thinks the same thing.”

The result is what Rodriguez called a “swinging pendulum,” since students often steer clear of suite configurations that went quickly the year before, causing other options to gain popularity instead.

But like Oedipus, students can’t try to foretell their fates without influencing them.

For instance, in prior years, East Campus exclusion suites were highly coveted options. 85 groups registered in 2005 and 81 groups registered in 2006 for only 56 exclusion suites, meaning that quite a few groups did not get what they wanted.

Because these suites were so difficult to attain in previous years, students perceived a lower chance of getting one last year, so there was a steep decrease in the number of groups that registered. Only 35 groups—the lowest number in 10 years—vied for EC exclusion suites in 2007, leaving 21 open for suite selection.
Since many groups decided against EC exclusion suites, the number of regular 5-person groups entering suite selection about doubled in last year’s lottery. Whereas 26 five-person groups entered the lottery in 2006, 53 registered last year.

This increase made 5-person suites in Hogan even harder to obtain. A look at the lottery cutoff point can generally indicate the difficulty of acquiring a dorm, as more desired dorms are snatched up earlier in the process. In 2005, these Hogan suites filled up at lottery number 1912, while in 2006, the last 5-person suite was taken much later in the game by lottery number 2777. Last year, demand went back up—the final group to select a suite had a lottery number of 1326.

EC 5-person high rises also saw increased popularity last year due to the turn away from exclusion suites. In 2005, the final group of rising seniors to select one of these suites had a lottery number of 2365, and in 2006, the last group had a number of 2600. Last year, the final group had a lottery number of 1148, so these suites were filled up relatively earlier in the lottery. If the “pendulum” pattern continues, 5-person suites may be more likely to be up for grabs again this year.

In addition, 3-person suites in 47 Claremont were in high demand last year. Whereas in 2005 and 2006, the last suite went to a group with a point average of 20, the final suite went to a group with a point average of 26.66 last year. Thus, more seniors opted to live in small groups than in previous years.

Eight-person suites with 2 singles and 3 doubles in Ruggles have become increasingly popular for rising sophomores. In 2005, the last suite went to lottery number 2946, while in 2006, the last suite went to lottery number 2016. Last year, the final suite went significantly earlier, to lottery number 532, suggesting that the class of 2010, in preferring these suites to hallway singles, is especially sociable. The jump in the numbers could also be a result of the renovations that made Ruggles a more sought-after residence hall.

Other configurations of suites in EC and Hogan have consistently gone to those with prime lottery numbers over the past several years. EC 2-person flats and 6-person suites with all singles have gone to seniors every year, as have 4-person suites in Hogan.

Matt Kingston, associate director for housing operations at Barnard, said that Barnard does not release similar numbers for their housing lottery “for the explicit purpose of trying to help students not freak out about the process.”

Kingston stressed that when statistics are published, they “affect how people sign up ... [but] the numbers don’t coalesce into a predictable pattern every year.”

This year, a new feature will be added to Barnard room selection to facilitate the process and decrease stress on the part of students. Before their appointment times, students will be able to view real-time updates online to determine which rooms remain.

Although analyzing past trends provides interesting insight into the selection process, looking at the numbers can be “discouraging,” according to Patrick Londen, CC ’10. But more than anything, Londen only had one word to describe the Columbia housing process: “unpredictable.”

stephanie.turner@columbiaspectator.com